Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.027408 0.031185 0.035313 0.040164 0.045714 0.051871 0.059226
2025-01-26 0.022086 0.027363 0.033660 0.041743 0.051869 0.064168 0.080291
2025-02-02 0.019241 0.025245 0.032843 0.043199 0.057004 0.074849 0.099796
2025-02-09 0.017245 0.023709 0.032293 0.044586 0.061832 0.085308 0.119933
2025-02-16 0.015186 0.021727 0.030779 0.044300 0.064123 0.092338 0.135930
2025-02-23 0.013702 0.020312 0.029805 0.044531 0.066995 0.100283 0.153927
2025-03-02 0.012263 0.018770 0.028429 0.043935 0.068454 0.106142 0.169256
2025-03-09 0.011408 0.017993 0.028076 0.044794 0.072142 0.115661 0.191249
2025-03-16 0.010382 0.016830 0.026987 0.044336 0.073613 0.121714 0.208130
2025-03-23 0.009873 0.016434 0.027060 0.045737 0.078229 0.133301 0.235565
2025-03-30 0.008884 0.015143 0.025535 0.044278 0.077789 0.136213 0.248001
2025-04-06 0.008130 0.014177 0.024456 0.043463 0.078353 0.140856 0.263959
2025-04-13 0.007290 0.012999 0.022932 0.041751 0.077206 0.142446 0.274673
2025-04-20 0.007038 0.012846 0.023201 0.043332 0.082309 0.156091 0.310240
2025-04-27 0.006796 0.012685 0.023433 0.044851 0.087425 0.170248 0.348445
2025-05-04 0.006561 0.012513 0.023622 0.046292 0.092518 0.184856 0.389264
2025-05-11 0.006129 0.011923 0.022964 0.045995 0.094072 0.192490 0.416195
2025-05-18 0.005800 0.011503 0.022595 0.046235 0.096742 0.202659 0.449787
2025-05-25 0.005406 0.010918 0.021846 0.045616 0.097522 0.208892 0.475270
2025-06-01 0.005201 0.010700 0.021818 0.046509 0.101645 0.222747 0.519869
2025-06-08 0.004877 0.010209 0.021184 0.046032 0.102684 0.229860 0.549390
2025-06-15 0.004757 0.010137 0.021422 0.047490 0.108231 0.247736 0.607098
2025-06-22 0.004385 0.009492 0.020378 0.045972 0.106750 0.249153 0.624085